Integral Future Scenarios

Two Papers by Chris Stewart:

Towards Integral Scenarios: Creative suggestions for translating AQAL integral theory into scenario methodologies

by Chris C Stewart

This paper outlines a range of methodological suggestions for approaching the design of scenarios from an integral theory perspective. The integral theory used is based primarily on the work of Ken Wilber, and his AQAL meta-theory. As an integral approach to scenarios, and Futures Studies (FS) generally, is only just beginning in the 21st century, there are few examples to draw on that example the promise of integral scenarios. Accordingly this paper is largely a creative exposition of potential. The suggestions herein will need to be tested, refined and will undoubtedly evolve in quite different ways as the realities of practical application shape their forms into value adding, repeatable, grounded methods and practice insights. There are also many areas where further development are identified as being possible and beneficial for scenarios and FS more generally.

Building on the contributions of [two former] papers the purpose of this third paper is to use the scenario worldview competencies, quality maxims, and Integral Operating System to develop a framework for methodological renewal of scenario development processes. Given that a developmental history of scenarios invites the investigation of an integral worldview approach, and the presentation of an integral worldview level theory provides the means for this investigation, the first new task of this paper is to provide an explanation of how the theory meets the worldview quality maxims and can incorporate the core competencies of the previous worldviews of scenarios.

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Integral Scenarios: Reframing Theory, Building from Practice

by Chris C. Stewart

Australian futurists have been working with a range of integral theories over the past decade to inform new approaches to scenarios. Chief among the integral theories explored is Wilber's All Quadrant, All Level, All Lines, All States, All Types (AQAL) meta-theory. This emerging and diverse set of scenario methods, falling under the term ‘integral scenarios’ as reviewed in this paper, have mostly been developed in practice and to date, have not been represented in futures journals.

This paper contextualizes integral scenarios with a summary of the theoretical background to their development before arriving at a generic scenario generation process together with a set of utility and quality criteria. This generic framework and criteria are then used to situate a range of case studies of integral scenarios, outlining their features, benefits and limitations. Finally, the areas of potential for further development are highlighted—for both refined and wholly new types of integral scenario methods.

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CHRIS STEWART is a consultant with Emergent Insights in Australia. As a futurist, integral theorist, and public affairs and strategy consultant, Chris attempts to enable individuals, teams and organisations to act with more comprehensive strategic foresight.